SICKOFITRADLZ: The polling does not look good for Trump and Vance

I love Isaiah's THE WORLD TODAY JUST NUTS "Crowd Envy" and it just went up.

All Trump and Vance do is lie and then lie again. No, Kamala Harris is not the "border czar." Wayne A. Cornelius (Los Angeles Times) explains:

"Border czar” is a gross mischaracterization of Harris’ role in the administration’s immigration policymaking. She was never tasked with fixing border enforcement.

In fact, her remit was to promote a different, complementary approach to controlling unwanted immigration: addressing why migrants felt it necessary to leave their homes.

Experts agree that attacking the factors driving international migration — poverty, joblessness, drug and gang violence, agricultural failures due to climate change, corruption and other rule-of-law challenges — is essential to reducing pressure on our southern border. Absent success on that front, tweaking U.S. border enforcement will never have a lasting impact.

But efforts to address the “root causes” of immigration must be undertaken within a realistic time frame. The drivers of migration have been intensifying for decades or even generations in the countries that produce most of the influx. It will take years — probably extending over several presidential terms — for a root-causes approach to achieve highly visible results.

So investments in addressing root causes aren’t a quick fix, but neglecting them entirely or until the border is “secure” — as Trump and other Republicans insist — only delays sustainable management of immigration. Harris helped lay the groundwork for longer-term solutions through intensive diplomacy with Latin American leaders and other interests.

This points to another requisite of the root-causes strategy: It can’t be implemented unilaterally. It requires often messy, difficult negotiations with other governments, civil society groups, development banks and multinational corporations.

AP also notes:

Harris’ assignment was to tackle the “root causes” of migration from three Central American nations — El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras — that were responsible for a significant share of border rossers. The vice president took a long-term approach to an immediate problem, helping convince multinational corporations and Latin American businesses to invest in the region. That, she argued, would create jobs and give locals more reasons to stay at home rather than take the arduous trek north.

Now for polling news, Philip Bump (WASHINGTON POST) reports:

On Wednesday, Monmouth University released new polling showing the difference between a Trump-Biden race and a Trump-Harris one.

Evaluating Trump and Biden, about 4 in 10 respondents viewed Trump favorably but not Biden and another 4 in 10 viewed only Biden favorably. About 2 in 10 viewed both unfavorably — the double-haters.

When comparing Trump and Harris, though, the double-hater pool was sliced in half. A lot more people view only Harris favorably than view only Trump favorably.

Put another way, a bunch of the double-haters shifted to liking only Harris. Asked to choose between Harris and Trump, those who view both Biden and Trump unfavorably picked Harris by a 5 to 1 margin.

You can see Harris’s advantages over Biden and Trump when breaking out the overall responses on Monmouth’s favorability question. Harris is viewed more positively overall. But among members of each politician’s own party, you can see Harris’s wide advantage: A lot of Democrats view Biden somewhat favorably, but three-quarters view Harris very positively. It’s a higher percentage than the percentage of Republicans who view Trump very favorably.

Need more polling news? Monica Sager (Newsweek) notes:

In spite of an historic month of political news and developments, not least of which includes Donald Trump dodging an assassination attempt on live television, the Republican nominee's polls have barely budged.

According to 538, Trump's national polling average since President Biden dropped out of the race has not moved so much as a point in either direction. The former president was garnering an average of 43.3% of the vote on Tuesday, according to the site's model, compared to 43.5% on July 21, the day Biden stepped aside and endorsed Kamala Harris.

And that's why I love C.I. Donald Trump got shot on a Saturday. I don't remember who was about to blog when the news broke but they sent out a text asking whether they should write about it or not?

C.I. ended up doing a group call. She said she'd note it in the Monday Iraq snapshot. She said anyone who wanted to note it before then or after could but be aware that this is easy 'coverage' so the media's going to try to milk it. They don't need reporting, it's just toss talking heads on the screen and gas bag. If that happens and happens for more than two days, they'll turn it into a national tragedy. That's what they want to do because that coverage is inexpensive. But if it reaches that level, Trump wins in November. She said she was not addressing it at THE COMMON ILLS until Monday's snapshot and it wouldn't be lengthy and it wouldn't be treated as some tragedy. An event happened, it was a crime and Trump's alive. And that's why she didn't highlight Jon Stewart's Daily Show segment that Monday night. She knows Jon and loves him but strong no. And we avoided the topic at our sites community wide. We didn't feed it and turn it into the media event that never died.

C.I. had said that she honestly didn't see people losing it over the attempt. She said most Democrats would roll with it but that Trump might have ticked off so many Republicans and independents that we all just rolled with it. And that's what happened.

Here's C.I.'s "Iraq snapshot:"

Wednesday, August 14, 2024. The Trump campaign finally gets their viral moment that grabs the internet, lies get Robert Kennedy Junior kicked off the ballot in New York (with larger implications around the country), Iraqis hope next month will see an announcement regarding US troops, Gaza remains under assault and much more.

We're now 82 days away from the US presidential election. And campaigns are imploding. Robert Kennedy Junior's grifting scam would be coming to an end if the worm hadn't eaten Junior's brain; however, that assault apparently left him unable to read both the room and the writing on the wall.

Katherine Koretski and Zoë Richards (NBC NEWS) reports he is off the ballot in New York state:

A judge ruled Monday against independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s effort to be appear on New York's general election ballot this fall.

New York Supreme Court Justice Christina Ryba invalidated Kennedy's nominating petition and directed the Board of Elections not to place Kennedy's name on the official ballot. Supreme Court is a trial-level court in New York state.

[. . .]

A Democratic-aligned group, Clear Choice Action, sued Kennedy over the New York address he claimed as his residence on ballot access petition forms. Kennedy resides in California with his wife, actor Cheryl Hines, but in testimony, he said the couple had always intended to move back to New York.

"The fact that Kennedy considers himself to be a 'New Yorker', has fond memories of the years he lived in the Town of Bedford and longs to return there someday, is utterly irrelevant to the issue of whether he resided in the spare bedroom of the 84 Croton Lake Road address during May of 2024 when he circulated and filed the nominating petition," the judge's ruling said.

It gets worse in two ways. First, Michael Hill and Philip Marcelo (AP) report:

Ryba said evidence submitted in trial showed Kennedy had a “long-standing pattern” of borrowing addresses from friends and relatives so he could maintain his voter registration in New York state while actually residing in California, where he has a home with his wife, “Curb Your Enthusiasm” actor Cheryl Hines.

“Given the size and appearance of the spare bedroom as shown in the photographs admitted into evidence, the Court finds Kennedy’s testimony that he may return to that bedroom to reside with his wife, family members, multiple pets, and all of his personal belongings to be highly improbable, if not preposterous," the judge wrote.

So, first off, if he voted in New York's 2020 presidential election, he did so fraudulently. This is not a minor issue. It goes to voter fraud.

And there's something really sad about Junior trying to become the President of the United States while he was also engaging in voter fraud. The other issue is the 12th Amendment to the US Constitution. AP covered it when there was speculation that Florida resident Donald Trump might choose Florida resident Marco Rubio:

The U.S. Constitution prohibits a president and vice president from residing in the same state. If Trump, who declared his Palm Beach estate his home in 2019, were to pick U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio or U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, the 12th Amendment could prevent the 30 Florida electors from casting their vote if Republicans win the state.

There are several ways for the Trump campaign to overcome this, legal experts say, though doing so might create some inconvenience for the vice presidential candidate.

“It’s just easier to run candidates from two different states,” said Sanford Levinson, a constitutional scholar at the University of Texas School of Law. “It does seem to be easy to evade any problems if you want to.”

[. . .]

The 12th Amendment says that members of the Electoral College shall vote for a president and vice president. It notes that one of the candidates “shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves.”

The amendment was added to the Constitution in 1804 when large states such as Virginia dominated the nation’s political discourse, Levinson said, as a way of limiting their power.

Sanford Levinson also shares his interpretation at the National Constitution Center. Joey Garrison (USA TODAY) observes, "The judge's decision could pave the way for similar residency challenges targeting Kennedy's candidacy in other states."

And Junior didn't just lie on paper. He lied to the court. USA TODAY notes, "Kennedy testified last week in court that his residency at the New York address began 'sometime around May of 2023' but confirmed none of his pets or family members reside at that address." No, it was May of 2024. He just can't stop lying. Allison Novelo (CBS NEWS) notes, "Barbara Moss, the woman who owns the home, testified that Kennedy paid her $500 a month for the room. She added that Kennedy had spent only one night at the home and that she received the first rental payment from him on May 20 of this year." Clear Choice Action responded to the verdict with the following statement:

Clear Choice Action, which supported the four New York voters' challenge of the validity of Robert Kennedy Jr.'s candidate petitions due to his use of a fake address on his candidate petitions, released the following statement on the New York Supreme Court's decision:

"Today's ruling makes clear that Mr. Kennedy lied about his residency and provided a false address on his filing papers and candidate petitions in New York, intentionally misleading election officials and betraying voters' trust. The Kennedy team will undoubtedly file desperate lawsuit after desperate lawsuit in the coming days and weeks; they will fail, and it will not change the simple truth: he lied, and he's being held accountable."

Remember that the next time one of the whiners says, "Oh, it's so unfair! They're taking me to court!" Did you follow the regulations or not? In Junior's case, he didn't. He lied about his residence and then made it a Constitutional issue by picking the extremely unqualified Nicole Shanahan to be his running mate despite the fact that Money Bags Shanahan was also from California.

In other election news, as all the voter enthusiasm has gone to Kamala Harris' campaign, running mates Convicted Felon Donald Trump and JD Skidmarks Vance have felt left out and unnoticed. But at last Skidmarks has his viral moment. Too bad for him, it entails him slathered in make up, wearing a wig and women's clothes.

For those late to the party, David Hudson (QUEERTY) recaps:

A second photo showing JD Vance wearing women’s clothing has gone viral. The first pic appeared on Sunday. Podcaster Matt Bernstein shared it to X

The photo apparently dates back to Yale Law School in 2012. Vance was studying there at the time. A former Yale student named, Travis Whitfill, located the image. He told the Daily Beast it’s from a Halloween party. Vance’s office did not respond to a request for comment and did not deny the photo was of Vance.

Of course, the internet had a field day when the photo of Vance, a consistent opponent of LGBTQ+ rights who supports ‘Don’t Say Gay’ bills for schools, in drag appeared. Internet users quickly came up with the drag name Sofa Loren for Vance.

The internet reacted with further glee when a second picture of Vance, probably taken at the same Halloween party, popped up yesterday afternoon.

This time, Matt Bernstein linked to a website—jdvanceindrag.com— encouraging people to vote in the November election.

Taija PerryCook (SNOPES) notes the first photo "amassed more than 17.6 million views." He finally got his viral moment. There are even contests to pick out a drag name for Skidmarks. The editors of QUEERTY write, "Of course, Vance’s camp hasn't responded to requests for comment about the photos—girl, if you can't love yourself in busted drag, how in the hell are you gonna love somebody else? But still, every drag queen needs a proper stage name. We've compiled 10 here. Help us pick the best one." Names include Sofa Loren, Ivana Cushion, Betty Settee and Jennifer Convertibles.

Rudi Kinsella (IRISH STAR) points out, "Many members of the Republican party have spent quite a few years condemning drag queens, which could leave Vance in a position where he does eventually need to address these images. Arizona Republicans even recently approved a bill to criminalize drag shows, with the artform being compared to pedophilia." Alex Bollinger (LGBTQ NATION) offers a longer listing of the senator's hate:

Last year, along with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) in the House, Vance introduced legislation in the Senate to ban gender-affirming care for transgender youth at the federal level and to make such care more difficult for transgender adults to obtain.

A year prior, Vance expressed his support for so-called “Don’t Say Gay” laws prohibiting discussions of sexual orientation and gender identities in schools, writing, “I’ll stop calling people ‘groomers’ when they stop freaking out about bills that prevent the sexualization of my children.”

Vance spoke out against laws protecting LGBTQ+ people from discrimination following the 2020 Supreme Court Bostock v. Clayton County ruling, which found that anti-LGBTQ+ discrimination is a form of sex-based discrimination. Vance criticized the legal reasoning behind the decision, stating it had resulted in a “betrayal of social conservatives and traditionalists.”

He also opposes the Equality Act, legislation to include sexual orientation and gender identity in federal anti-discrimination laws.

He proposed the “Passport Sanity Act,” which would prohibit the use of “X” gender markers on passports and limit gender options to only male or female.

Aurora DeStefano (TWO PARAGRAPHS) notes, "The transgender look doesn’t say 'Republican Vice President' so much as it suggests TikTok personality Dylan Mulvaney, whose receipt of a customized Bud Light can so enraged MAGA adherents in April 2023 that they stirred up a massive boycott of what was once the #1 selling beer in America."

Turning to the Middle East, PRESS TV reports:

Resistance forces have fired four missiles from Iraq targeting the US military base in the Washington-controlled Conoco gas field in eastern Syria.

Lebanese television channel Al Mayadeen said US warplanes were flying intensely in the skies of Deir ez-Zor countryside following the attack on Tuesday evening.

Local sources reported that US soldiers shelled towns in Deir ez-Zor following the resistance operation.

Two US officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, claimed that the projectiles did not hit the base and there were no injuries, according to Reuters.

Meanwhile, a Pentagon official said that 8 American soldiers were wounded in the resistance operation against Kharab Al-Jir base in a drone attack on their base in Syria on Friday.

Over the weekend, APA noted, "The foreign minister of Iraq will travel to Washington next month to make a formal announcement about the withdrawal of American military forces from the Arab country, informed sources said, APA reports citing TASNIM." Officially, 2,500 US troops remain in Iraq. The number is actually much higher. Last month, someone at the US Embassy in Baghdad shot a woman in an apartment across the way leaving her hospitalized which has increased the calls for US troops to leave Iraq. As noted in this snapshot, the wife of Dr Abdul Amir al-Hazali was praying in her apartment when she was shot. As we noted then, the shooting resulted in another push to expel US troops from Iraq:

Abdul Amir Al-Ghazali spoke with ALSUMARIA and explained to them that the shooting took place on Friday while his wife was praying. The Badr Organization accuses the US government of converting the US Embassy in Baghdad into a "military base," condemns the action citing the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations 1961, and, citing the Iraqi Constitution (Articles 1, 15, 50 and 109) calls for Iraq's legislative and executive branches to expel the US military from Iraq.

The Badr Organization is part of the alliance that controls the Parliament. Over the weekend, another group began echoing the call. SABA reports, "State of Law Coalition member Ahmed Al-Sudani on Sunday said that Washington is procrastinating in determining the withdrawal paragraph from Iraq, stressing that the withdrawal of US forces is necessary to achieve national security. State of Law is former prime minster and forever thug Nouri al-Maliki's coalition. Arabic social media is showing some excitement about the upcoming September trip to DC with the hope that an announcement will be made that US troops are leaving.

Love to see that happen but don't see it happening.

In other Iraq news, Cathrin Schaer (DW) reports:

The Iraqi government's attempt to change what is often called the most liberal personal status law in the Middle East has been met with protests and social media outrage.

"Here is Baghdad," Ali al-Mikdam, a journalist and human rights activist, wrote on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) over the weekend about a demonstration in the Iraqi capital attended by about 500 people.

"The capital of our Iraq was not and will not be Kandahar!" he said, referring to drastically restricted women's rights in Afghanistan.

Personal status laws, or family laws, govern marriage, divorce, child custody and inheritance. In the Middle East, many of these are based on religion, but Iraq's Personal Status Law No. 188, passed in 1959, is less so. It basically replaced Sunni and Shiite Muslim religious courts with a civil judiciary and more liberal interpretations of Islamic jurisprudence.

But now, Iraqi politicians affiliated with conservative Shiite Muslim parties want to try and change this. Their draft bill to amend Law No. 188 was read in parliament on August 4. In response, a coalition of activists, politicians, and human rights organizations formed Alliance 188, named after the law, to organize protests all around Iraq last weekend.

"We have a civil law, and we should be changing it for good, not bad. We should not be going backward," Rasha, a local who attended the protests, told DW. The 53-year-old didn't want to give her full name because some of the protesters had been harassed. In the central Iraqi city of Najaf, police had to separate angry groups of demonstrators.

"I don't even know why they want to do this," Rasha continued. "I think they just hate the rights of women, and that's why they want to change this law. Really, I thank God I am not married, that I don't have to worry about my children in the future."

Meanwhile, in Gaza, ALJAZEERA notes, "At least 20 Palestinians have been killed across the central and southern Gaza Strip this morning in Israeli strikes on Nuseirat, Maghazi, Khan Younis and Rafah." Each day the deaths continue. There is no cease-fire or even a stop-gap measure passed off as a 'cease-fire.' Ghaya Ben Mbarek (THE NATIONAL) reports:

UN officials condemned Israel's recent attack on Al Tabaeen school, in which at least 100 Palestinians were killed

The August 10 strike on the school in eastern Gaza city – where more than 2,400 displaced people were sheltering – was one of at least 21 strikes on schools recorded since July 4, the UN Security Council in New York heard.

The Al Tabaeen attack highlighted “the desperate need to reach a ceasefire, free the hostages and scale up humanitarian aid”, Rosemary DiCarlo, under secretary general for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, told Security Council members in a meeting called by Algeria, a non-permanent member of the council.

Ms DiCarlo said the situation in Gaza “remains catastrophic”, while hostilities continue.

“No place is safe in Gaza, yet civilians continue to be ordered to evacuate to ever shrinking areas,” she said.

We keep hearing people -- officials -- condemning what's taking place. We don't see anyone stopping it and that includes the international court.

Gaza remains under assault. Day 313 of the assault in the wave that began in October. Binoy Kampmark (DISSIDENT VOICE) points out, "Bloodletting as form; murder as fashion. The ongoing campaign in Gaza by Israel’s Defence Forces continues without stalling and restriction. But the burgeoning number of corpses is starting to become a challenge for the propaganda outlets: How to justify it? Fortunately for Israel, the United States, its unqualified defender, is happy to provide cover for murder covered in the sheath of self-defence." CNN has explained, "The Gaza Strip is 'the most dangerous place' in the world to be a child, according to the executive director of the United Nations Children's Fund." ABC NEWS quotes UNICEF's December 9th statement, ""The Gaza Strip is the most dangerous place in the world to be a child. Scores of children are reportedly being killed and injured on a daily basis. Entire neighborhoods, where children used to play and go to school have been turned into stacks of rubble, with no life in them." NBC NEWS notes, "Strong majorities of all voters in the U.S. disapprove of President Joe Biden’s handling of foreign policy and the Israel-Hamas war, according to the latest national NBC News poll. The erosion is most pronounced among Democrats, a majority of whom believe Israel has gone too far in its military action in Gaza." The slaughter continues. It has displaced over 1 million people per the US Congressional Research Service. Jessica Corbett (COMMON DREAMS) points out, "Academics and legal experts around the world, including Holocaust scholars, have condemned the six-week Israeli assault of Gaza as genocide." The death toll of Palestinians in Gaza is grows higher and higher. United Nations Women noted, "More than 1.9 million people -- 85 per cent of the total population of Gaza -- have been displaced, including what UN Women estimates to be nearly 1 million women and girls. The entire population of Gaza -- roughly 2.2 million people -- are in crisis levels of acute food insecurity or worse." THE NATIONAL notes, "Gaza death toll rises to 39,965 with 92,294 wounded." Months ago, AP noted, "About 4,000 people are reported missing." February 7th, Jeremy Scahill explained on DEMOCRACY NOW! that "there’s an estimated 7,000 or 8,000 Palestinians missing, many of them in graves that are the rubble of their former home." February 5th, the United Nations' Phillipe Lazzarini Tweeted:

April 11th, Sharon Zhang (TRUTHOUT) reported, "In addition to the over 34,000 Palestinians who have been counted as killed in Israel’s genocidal assault so far, there are 13,000 Palestinians in Gaza who are missing, a humanitarian aid group has estimated, either buried in rubble or mass graves or disappeared into Israeli prisons. In a report released Thursday, Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor said that the estimate is based on initial reports and that the actual number of people missing is likely even higher."

Lastly, e-mails to the public e-mail account about 'poor' Trashy Garbage -- Trina's nickname for the hideous Tulsi Gabbard. Oh, she was the victim!!!! All her life. Matt Taibbi is part of this because liars stick together. Whatever Turlsi did or didn't do, we covered the ongoing investigation against her in our community newsletters. And if Fatty Matty, that Uncle Fester looking piece of trash, needs a news tip -- go for the military records because that's where the investigation into Tulsi started and it started in 2023. The e-mails I had access to began in September of 2023 and the USARMY Reserve USARC HQ were cc'd on them. Tulsi's actions concerned her military supervisors so why don't you go digging there.

The following sites updated:

SICKOFITRADLZ

Wednesday, August 14, 2024

The polling does not look good for Trump and Vance

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