Monday, October 21, 2024

Truths and polling

 

That's a good Tweet.  Okay, polls?  Let me note  Sara Dorn (Forbes)'s report:



Vice President Kamala Harris has a two-point lead in Pennsylvania over former President Donald Trump in a new poll out Monday, while polling averages show less than a one-point margin between the two in the key swing state.

Harris is ahead two points, 49% to 47%, in a Washington Post-Schar School poll of likely voters (margin of error 4.6).

Harris led Trump by three points, 50% to 47%, in a pair of New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls released Oct. 12, while Trump was up 47% to 46% in a Sept. 28-Oct. 8 Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters who said they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for either candidate.






In a national election as close as this one — and this one is really close — a lot of attention will obviously be paid to any real voting data we can find. And in an era when early voting in one or multiple forms is now available nearly everywhere, it’s tempting to analyze early voting data as it is compiled. According to the University of Florida Election Lab tracker, as of October 21, 14.9 million votes had already been cast, with just over 10 million mail ballots having been returned and 4.7 million cast in person. Total mail ballots requested by voters (in states where that is a requirement) amount to 56 million.

By comparison, total early voting in 2020 reached 101 million ballots, about two-thirds of the total vote, with 65 million involving mail ballots and 36 million cast in person. No one expects this year’s early vote to match 2020’s, in part because a number of states temporarily relaxed voting-by-mail requirements to reflect pandemic conditions, and in part because voters themselves were more likely to avoid Election Day lines.

,

Reports about which party (or presidential candidate) is doing well in early voting should come with a number of huge asterisks. Only 23 states report early voting numbers according to voters’ party registration status. Among those (roughly half of early votes cast so far), according to Election Lab, registered Democrats represent 46.5 percent of early voters and registered Republicans represent 32.5 percent with the rest (20.9 percent) being unaffiliated.

Should the Kamala Harris camp be enthused about this (heavy asterisks!) “lead”? Maybe. Votes already cast are “banked” votes, which allows the campaign to focus on undecided or unmobilized voters. But almost everywhere, early voters are very likely to be people who would have voted in any circumstances, so a given party’s heavy early vote share doesn’t necessarily mean a heavy overall vote. It’s also worth remembering that early-voting breakdowns in non-battleground states may affect the national popular vote but won’t determine the election winner. And the patterns in battleground states are more complicated than the national numbers indicate.
 



Here's C.I.'s "Iraq snapshot:"


Monday, October 21, 2024.  Donald Trump's cognitive abilities continue to crash though Mike Johnson appreciated Donald's Arnold Palmer fan fiction,  people grow more concerned about Elon Musk's attempts to buy an election, and much more. 



Mail in voting, early voting and voting on election day November 5th -- there are 14 days left to vote in the US presidential election.  And the closer it gets, the crazier Convicted Felon Donald Trump gets.  

Saturday, he spent a campaign speech  talking about the size of a dead man's penis.  Grasp that. 


Arnold Palmer's been dead for eight years.  Donald's talking about Arnold's cock. 

Americans are worried about healthcare, housing and food -- about reproductive rights, about Civil Rights, about our nation continuing to be a democracy.   And Donald's talking about how excited he got -- at least six years ago -- when he saw Arnold Palmer's penis.

Did he gets his dates mixed up?  October 11th was national coming out day.

Steve Contorno and Kate Sullivan (CNN) note the rambling Arnold Palmer remarks "lasted nearly 15 minutes." On CNN's STATE OF THE UNION, Jake Tapper asked Speaker of the House Mike Johnson,  "Is this really the message you want voters to hear from Donald Trump, stories about Arnold Palmer's penis?" 


Mike couldn't answer.  He closed his eyes -- apparently thought about his stash of copies of INCHES, HONCHO and BLUE BOY -- and then, as though he were in conversion camp all over again, changed the subject.  




From the transcript:


TAPPER: I'm sure that you think that a policy debate would be better than a personality debate. But if President Biden had gone on stage and spoke about the size of a

pro-golfer's penis, I think you would be on this show right now saying you were shocked and appalled, and you would suggest it was evidence of his cognitive decline.

I wonder how Trump's remarks, not just the one about Arnold Palmer on his -- quote -- "manhood," but everything we have heard from Trump this week, how it fits in with the analysis that "The New York Times" offered a few days ago.

They looked at his speeches from 2015 and 2016 and looked at his speeches today and said -- quote -- "With the passage of time, the 78- year-old former president's speeches have grown darker, harsher, longer, angrier, less focused, more profane, and increasingly fixated on the past."

I know you want to talk about policy, and I respect that. But the reason that Donald Trump is not up 10 points is because of comments like that one, where people do have concerns about his fitness, his acuity, and his stability.

Why is he talking about Arnold Palmer's penis in front of Pennsylvania voters?

JOHNSON: Jake, you seem to like that line a lot.

Let me tell you that Donald Trump is doing rallies nonstop around the country.

TAPPER: I didn't -- believe me -- let me just say something. Let me just say something.

(LAUGHTER)

JOHNSON: OK. All right.

TAPPER: I don't want to be talking about this. Donald Trump is out there saying it. It is unstable.

JOHNSON: But you continue to. Let's talk about...

TAPPER: Because you won't -- because you won't address it.

JOHNSON: Wait a minute. Hold on.

TAPPER: You won't address it. 


In fairness to Mike Johnson, when Jake spoke of the penis remarks, Mike had a look on his face -- a dreamy look, that can only be described as, "I wonder what his balls smell like it?"  He gets so easily distracted.  Jake wasn't letting him off on that topic or on Donald's attacks on the American people.


TAPPER: In multiple interviews this week, Donald Trump repeatedly referred to prominent Democrats and others on the left in the United States, American citizens, as -- quote -- "the enemy from within" -- unquote.

And he suggested as president he would want to use the National Guard or military against them. Let me play some of that for our viewers.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: The bigger problem are the people from within. We have some very bad people. We have some sick people, radical left lunatics. And I think they're the big -- and it should be very easily handled by -- if necessary, by National Guard or if really necessary by the military, because they can't let that happen.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: One of the first things you did when you joined Congress was to create the Honor and Civility Caucus.

Does wanting to use the military against political opponents, would that pass muster with the Civility Caucus?

JOHNSON: That's not...

(LAUGHTER)

JOHNSON: Jake, you know that's not what he's talking about there. What he's talking about is marauding gangs of dangerous, violent people...

TAPPER: No.

JOHNSON: ... who are destroying public property and threatening other American citizens.

TAPPER: No, he talked about Adam Schiff and the Pelosis.

He's not talking -- Governor Youngkin tried this with me too. That's not -- he was very clear.

Let me play -- because he was asked about this later on, because FOX always likes to give Donald Trump an opportunity to clean it up. And he always says, no, no, I said what I meant. Here's what he said when asked about it the next day.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: It is the enemy from within. And they're very dangerous.

They're Marxists and communists and fascists and they're sick. I use a guy like Adam Schiff, because they made up the Russia, Russia, Russia hoax. It took two years to solve the problem. Absolutely nothing was done wrong, et cetera, et cetera. They're dangerous for our country. We have China. We have Russia. We have all these countries. If you have a smart president, they can all be handled.

The more difficult are, you know, the Pelosis. These people, they're so sick, and they're so evil.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: He's -- that's what he's talking about using the U.S. military against, not marauding gangs of Venezuelan... 

JOHNSON: Wait a minute. Wait. Hold on.

TAPPER: Adam Schiff, Nancy Pelosi, Nancy Pelosi's husband, Paul.

JOHNSON: That's...

TAPPER: So, let me just say, if a Democratic presidential candidate said that you and your wife were evil and that the military should be used against you, I would say that's disgusting.

JOHNSON: Well, thank you. And some have said that about us, because they don't like my politics.

I did not hear President Trump in that clip say he's going to sic the military on Adam Schiff. That's not what he's saying. You have got two different clips in two different contexts.

What President Trump is talking about is that they have been attacking and maligning him from the day he came down that golden escalator. Everybody knows that's true. In 2015, 2016, that's when this began. He's been the most attacked, maligned political figure in U.S. history. They have tried to kill him twice in the last few months.

TAPPER: Who is they?

JOHNSON: This is real. And he feels that acutely.

And, Jake, you would too...

TAPPER: What do you mean they?

JOHNSON: ... if you were under attack like he is all the time, every day.

They, I mean Iran, who has assassination attempts out against him.

TAPPER: Sure. But that's not...

JOHNSON: I mean crazy, dangerous people in the country who get on rooftops and take shots.

TAPPER: But Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi are not trying to assassinate Donald Trump. There's this conflation of anybody...

JOHNSON: They're not, Jake. They're not.

But -- no, but the political attacks have been relentless and they have been baseless. And they made up the Russian collusion hoax. And they went after him and they have been going after him ever since. They tried to impeach him twice.

I mean, they have done real damage in the American psyche. What I'm talking about is the political attacks that are so over the top. Kamala Harris has used language saying he's so dangerous to the country.

[09:15:04]

I mean, I have had colleagues in the House say he must be eliminated, he must be extinguished.

TAPPER: He's literally talking about taking the military...

JOHNSON: I mean, this stuff is over the top. Now, you know my...

TAPPER: ... and using it against Democrats. I mean, he's literally talking...

(CROSSTALK)

JOHNSON: No, he's not. No, he's...

TAPPER: Yes, he is.

JOHNSON: No, he's not, Jake. No, he's not.

No, he's talking about using the National Guard and the military to keep the peace in our streets. In the summer of 2020 that my Democrat colleagues call the summer of love, it was crazy. It was mayhem. And Democratic progressive mayors and governors allowed it to go on, including Tim Walz, who allowed Minneapolis to burn and it's still not rebuilt.

Look, Trump is talking about restoring law and order. And I'm telling you, you can mock it. People in the media can mock it, but that resonates with the American people. They are sick of being afraid on the streets of their cities.

Donald Trump can bring order back to the chaos. They know that. So they're willing to give a little on his social media posts and some fun language he uses at rallies.

TAPPER: And he's -- he called January 6 a day of love. He said that the January 6 criminals, the prisoners who violently attacked your place of work, he compared them to the victims of Japanese internment camps.

And that guy is in favor of law and order?

JOHNSON: Yes, President Trump had and kept law and order.

When he says that the campaign rallies...

TAPPER: Except on January 6.

JOHNSON: ... that we didn't have hot wars around the globe during his administration -- no, look -- look, he's right.

Russia did not invade Ukraine under his watch. Israel was not attacked viciously by Iran and its proxies, because they were afraid to do so under our -- that commander in chief, under President Trump. They're not afraid right now. Our allies are nervous. Our enemies are empowered because they see an

opportunity. The only person that they fear less, our enemies abroad, the only person they fear less than Joe Biden is Kamala Harris. At the end of the day, when you go into the ballot box, I would just encourage everybody, ask yourself quietly, are you comfortable with Kamala Harris being the commander in chief of the U.S. armed forces at the most dangerous moment since World War II?

She could not handle that. Our enemies would have an opportunity there. And people think about those things. And that's why they're going to vote for Donald Trump.

TAPPER: It's like you were...

JOHNSON: That's why he's going to win and be reelected president.

TAPPER: ... answering questions from a completely different interviewer.

But, Speaker Johnson, I appreciate your time today. Thank you so much. And best of luck on the campaign trail in these last 16 days. I hope it is a peaceful and successful election and that all the ballots from legal voters are counted and that the actual winner takes office. That would be fantastic. 

But fantastic would not be a term to describe Donald's weekend.  In Pennsylvania, he insisted he was nowhere near 80. In June of 2026, he turns 80 -- that's less than two years from now.  He also claimed he 'aced' two cognitive tests and the doctor said no one had ever done so well.  Really?  Then why did the doctor give you two cognitive tests?  More to the point, you don't ace it.  The test either determines you have cognitive problems or it determines that you don't.  It's a pass/fail test.   He is close to 80 and it matters because he's unable to keep up the campaign schedule -- so how the hell would he be able to handle four years in the White House?  Noting all of his recent appearance cancellations, Griffin Eckstein (SALON) points out, "The diminished campaigning schedule is sure to raise eyebrows as critics question whether the 78-year-old former president is fit to continue campaigning at a competitive pace."  He's not.  He's ranting and raving when he does manage to show up for an appearance.   Oliver O'Connell and Joe Sommerlad (INDEPENDENT) note:

Donald Trump, 78, ranted at a town hall Sunday in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, that he is “not close to 80”, a sign that the Harris campaign’s increased focus on his age and cancellation of several interviews in recent days has been getting to him.

Trump also worked the fry cooker at a McDonald’s on Sunday — the latest bizarre moment in a campaign that has increasingly become a tour of personal vendettas and aimless grudges despite his aides’ best efforts to keep the former president on track.


On McDonalds, THE HINDUSTAN TIMES notes:

Even as X users were eulogising their MAGA head for ‘trolling’ Kamala Harris over her claims that she has worked for McDonald's during yesteryears Redditors exposed his political gimmick by releasing images of a shut down McDonald's in Pennsylvania.

[. . .]

Redditors put out the most stunning proof that verified Trump's attendance at the Feasterville McDonald's was all but staged. A note put up by Derek Giacomantonio, the unit's manager stating, “We plan to be closed on Sunday, October 20 until 4 p.m., to accommodate a visit at the request of former President Trump and his campaign.”

The note ended with, “I apologise for the inconvenience of closing our restaurant and sincerely look forward to serving you very soon.”


As the Trump campaign struggled along, Kamala Harris inspired a huge crowd in Georgia and former US President  Barack Obama spoke in Nevada.  We'll note Barack because -- in our piece for THIRD -- Ava and I are quoting Kamala's speech.  


Barack Obama:  I don't think we've ever had an election with candidates who understand freedom so differently.  For Donald Trump and his cronies, freedom just means getting away with stuff.  It's like he said in the middle of the pandemic -- I don't even know if people remember this.  I remember it because I was paying attention.  People were dying and hospitals were overrun.  He's the president of the United States and at one point he said, "I don't take any responsibility at all."  I am not sure any American president has ever uttered those words.  But that's his idea of freedom.  'I do what I want and I am not responsible for anything.'  Well we've got a broader idea of freedom.  We believe in the freedom to provide for our families if we're willing to work. The freedom to breathe clean air and drink clean water and send our kids to school without worrying if they'll come home. We believe that true freedom gives each of us the right to make decisions about our own life.  And it requires us to recognize  other people have the freedom to make different choices.


Barack is campaigning for Kamala Harris.  Former US President Bill Clinton is campaigning for her.  Current President Joe Biden is campaigning for her.  Former US President Jimmy Carter just voted for her in Georgia. 


Now there's only one living GOP president not named Trump but isn't it curious that Bully Boy Bush won't hit the campaign trail for Donald -- or endorse him.  Nor will Jeb who was once Governor of Florida.  While Kamala works on united people from across the aisle, Donald Trump can't even unite the Republican Party.  


But he does have his supporters.  People like Elon Musk.  Let's note this from MEET THE PRESS (NBC).



KRISTEN WELKER:

Governor, let me ask you about a development we learned about overnight. Elon Musk says he will be giving away a million dollars every day to random voters who signed his super PAC’s petition. You are a former attorney general. Is this legal?

GOV. JOSH SHAPIRO:

I think there are real questions with how he is spending money in this race, how the dark money is flowing, not just into Pennsylvania, but apparently now into the pockets of Pennsylvanians. That is deeply concerning. Look, Musk obviously has a right to be able to express his views. He's made it very, very clear that he supports Donald Trump. I don’t – obviously, we have a difference of opinion. I don't deny him that right. But when you start flowing this kind of money into politics, I think it raises serious questions that folks may want to take a look at.

KRISTEN WELKER:

So you think it might not be legal? Yes or no.

GOV. JOSH SHAPIRO:

I think it's something that law enforcement could take a look at. I'm not the attorney general anymore of Pennsylvania. I'm the governor, but it does raise some serious questions.

KRISTEN WELKER:

All right. Well, I have to end the interview by saying from one Pennsylvanian to another, "Go Birds." We'll be watching the game today.

GOV. JOSH SHAPIRO:

Go Birds. All right, Kristen, thank you.


Shapiro's correct.  This is not in the spirit of the law.  There are so many problems with what Musk is doing -- far beyond just trash trying to buy our election.  Which is why we raised objections last week. Mike Catalini (AP) notes:  


Some election law experts are raising red flags about the giveaway. Brendan Fischer, a campaign finance lawyer, said the latest iteration of Musk’s giveaway approaches a legal boundary. That’s because the PAC is requiring registration as a prerequisite to become eligible for the $1 million check. “There would be few doubts about the legality if every Pennsylvania-based petition signer were eligible, but conditioning the payments on registration arguably violates the law,” Fischer said in an email.

Rick Hasen, a UCLA Law School political science professor, went further. He pointed to a law that prohibits paying people for registering to vote or for voting. “If all he was doing was paying people to sign the petition, that might be a waste of money. But there’s nothing illegal about it,” Hasen said in a telephone interview. “The problem is that the only people eligible to participate in this giveaway are the people who are registered to vote. And that makes it illegal.” 


Marshall Cohen (CNN) reports:

             

Regardless of the long odds of a Musk prosecution, other respected election law experts strongly condemned the billionaire’s behavior.

“This isn’t a particularly close case — this is exactly what the statute was designed to criminalize,” said David Becker, a former Justice Department official handling voting rights cases and founder of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation & Research.

Becker said the fact that the prize is available only to registered voters “in one of seven swing states that could affect the outcome of the presidential election” is strong evidence of Musk’s intent to influence the race, which could be legally problematic.

“This offer was made in the last days before some registration deadlines,” Becker said, bolstering the appearance that the cash prizes are designed to drive up registration.

Rick Hasen, an election law expert at the UCLA School of Law and a Trump critic, said in a blog post that Musk’s sweepstakes was “clearly illegal vote-buying.” He pointed out that the Justice Department’s election crimes manual specifically says it’s illegal to offer “lottery chances” that are “intended to induce or reward” actions such as voter registration.     


It's a shame that it took others calling it out for journalists and news outlets to note the legal problems.  But, again, journalism students are glorified general studies majors.  They're not really known for expertise.  And our country suffers as a result.  Our country also suffers from 'immigrants.'  Not the people trying to get in to be part of the American dream but those who think they can buy the country.  Trash like Elon Musk.  Here's Rebecca's "elon musk is not 'an american'" from last week:


'reuters' reports, 'Elon Musk gave around $75 million to his pro-Donald Trump spending group in the span of three months, federal disclosures showed on Tuesday, underscoring how the billionaire has become crucial to the Republican candidate's efforts to win the Nov. 5 presidential election.'


why do we even have laws regarding donations?

yes, the $75 million is an outrageous sum.

but i'm not talking about the figure.

elon musk is not 'an american citizen.'

musk is a citizen of south africa - where he was born and taught racism - and his mother had been canadian so he got the from her.  

'an american citizen' is not using money in an attempt to buy an election - some 1 with multiple citizenship is.

that should be illegal.

here in the u.s. it should be illegal.  in canada it should be illegal.  in south africa it should be illegal.

he's not 'an american.'

his wealth allows him to abuse the system and to corrupt elections in multiple countries.

i don't have a problem with immigration.  i'm not stupid enough to believe the lies about immigrants making them out to be dog eaters or other such nonsense.

i'm fine with taking in immigrants.

i am not fine with people having dual citizenship (or more than dual).

it's not right, it's not fair.

elon musk gets to have a presence in our elections because he's rish.


One reason he's not connecting with voters?  He opens his mouth.  And they hear that hideous accent -- the accent of White people from South Africa who profited from apartheid.  They hear the voice of racism and they know he's not one of them.  The US has an immigration problem -- and it's letting millionaires and billionaires buy their way in as they then work on corrupting our democracy.  They are the true threats to democracy.  


Let's note another Donald supporter, creepy Robert Kennedy Junior.  At SHOWBIZ 411, Robert Friedman notes Ethel Kennedy's funeral and how wayward son Robert Kennedy Junior and his laughable wife Cheryl Hines showed up:


Hines has a Cheshire cat smile, and her hand is in her pocket. Is she going to stay with Kennedy after his much publicized affair with journalist Olivia Nuzzi? Or is she so happy to be with Kennedys and former presidents that she will overlook the revelation that her husband reportedly wanted to “impregnate” Nuzzi?

And it’s not just Nuzzi. Kennedy reportedly has had a few affairs this year.


Multiple.  Multiple affairs.  And we are all laughing at her as Elaine noted Friday:

 

Paul Rudnick.



She really is a piece of trash, isn't she?  Cheryl Hines never became famous because she's so odd looking.  The weird eyes, the dangling boob on one side that Junior pointed out to his friends.  She has no beauty and she has no self-respect.  She's revealed herself to be trash.  I'm glad he cheats on her.  I'm glad the whole country knows he cheats on her.  I'm glad the whole country knows that she knows he cheats on her.

They get how pathetic and disgusting she truly is. 


Lastly, on Friday Bart Jansen, Josh Meyer and Aysha Bagchi (USA TODAY) reported:


The newly released documents also show that an unnamed organization budgeted as much as $3 million on the Jan. 6 rally and related events, including for bringing VIP guests and protesters to Washington and ad buys for a show of force.

Several versions of the “Confidential – Not To Be Disclosed” document are included, with some redactions, and appear to have been prepared for House Jan. 6 Select Committee investigating the attacks, which disclosed some of the information.

But the documents released Friday show that $1 million was budgeted for Turning Point Action, a grassroots non-profit group founded in 2019 by Charlie Kirk to embolden young conservatives “through grassroots activism.”

The money was earmarked for having TPA deploy social media influencers and students from around the country to Washington to attend the rally, to produce “all the video content at the event” and to run nationwide ads “educating millions about the significance of January 6th for President Trump.”

Another $500,000 was budgeted for a group founded by Donald Trump Jr., “Save the U.S. Senate,” to stop alleged voter fraud in Georgia and help re-elect Republican Senate candidates Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue. The document said the investment would “help support attendance" at a Jan. 4 rally with Trump in Georgia and to make additional ad buys featuring Trump’s eldest son “to encourage Senators Loeffler and Perdue to vote to stop the steal in Georgia on January 6.”

The budget documents show another $400,000 was budgeted for Tea Party Express to create a centralized website to promote the rally events on January 5th and 6th, including targeted ads and a television, radio and digital campaign to promote the January 6th rally and encourage attendance.


Kat's "Kat's Korner: Chase Rice's GO DOWN SINGIN' and Cher's CLOSER TO THE TRUTH" went up this morning.  The following sites updated:


  



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